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ANDREW STALLWOOD-KEEGAN

Follow theincentives.

I write about AI, capital and power: who makes the money, whose business model breaks, and what happens when the technology meets the real world.

Start with the questions
AI / CAPITAL / POWER
Andrew Stallwood-Keegan
ANDREW STALLWOOD-KEEGAN
ON SUBSTACKThe 2040
Brief.
The economics behind what comes next.

QUESTIONS I’M EXPLORING

IDEAS & ARGUMENTS

The two essays above are in development. Published links will appear here.

01 / EXPERIENCEPRACTICE & PERSPECTIVE

Ideas meet
commercial reality.

I know the difference between a compelling idea and one a client will actually pay for. My career has been built around understanding businesses well enough to connect the two.

Systems ThinkerCEOFounderFuturistStrategic RainmakerEntrepreneurAuthor

Vantage Point Global

Founder & CEO

GFT Technologies

Director

Genpact Capital Markets

Senior Vice PresidentEurope & Scandinavia

More experienceLess experience

Phi Partners

Global Sales Director

FDM Group

Business Development / GTM

Salesperson of the Year — two years running.

Lloyds Banking Group

Analyst

02 / PUBLICATIONSBOOKS, ESSAYS & IDEAS

Room for
the whole argument.

Some questions deserve
more than a passing opinion.

03 / BACKGROUNDTHE PERSON & THE PERSPECTIVE

A habit of
asking why.

The sales instinct never really leaves you. Who needs this? Why would they pay? Does it actually work?

My route into these questions runs through banking, technology and sales: from Lloyds and FDM to senior roles at Genpact and GFT, and founding Vantage Point Global. Understanding the client’s business has always been the interesting part for me. The technology has to make sense inside it.

That is also how I approach the future. AI and robotics fascinate me, particularly when falling costs make an established business model look suddenly rather expensive. I follow those consequences through companies, labour markets and the institutions trying to keep up.

I’m optimistic about what we can build. I’m less easily persuaded by the presentation.

ON X & SUBSTACK

X is where I put an observation into the conversation and see which questions it opens up. Substack gives me room to follow the evidence, do the sums and develop the argument. If the numbers spoil a good theory, the theory has to go.

04 / PAST COMPANIES

Where I’ve worked.

GFT TechnologiesVantage Point GlobalGenpact Capital MarketsCapitaFDM GroupLloyds Banking GroupPhi Partners
05 / CLIENTS

Who I’ve worked with.

Deutsche BankJ.P. MorganMorgan StanleyUBSHSBCBarclaysBNP ParibasBank of TokyoNomuraCitiLCH.ClearnetCredit SuisseSilicon Valley BankBear StearnsEBRD — European Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentSantander
INGDanske BankHypoVereinsbankCrédit AgricoleSwedbankNordeaABN AMROSociété GénéraleNatWestUniCreditBBVACommerzbankRabobankHandelsbankenAIB
Lloyd’s of LondonAmlin — MS Amlin logoTokio MarineQBEACE ReinsuranceBBCVirgin MediaVirgin MoneyMercedes-BenzAXAHastings DirectThomson ReutersFreshfieldsLinklaters
06 / CONTACTLET’S TALK

Have something
worth exploring?

A difficult business question, a research commission, a speaking invitation, or a disagreement worth having. I’m interested.

Email address to be added.

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POLICY & POWER / EXCERPT
Whitehall and the Houses of Parliament in the sunshine

Free care.
At what cost?

Pensions, robotics and the hidden economics of free personal care.

Most people think about the next few years. Governments think in decades because they have to. You worry about next year’s mortgage, whether your pension will stretch far enough and what happens if you eventually need care. The Treasury worries about what tens of millions of people will cost in 2035, 2045 and 2055. It models demographics, pensions, productivity, debt, healthcare and the future labour market because running a country requires rather more forward planning than deciding what to have for dinner.

That matters when a government makes a promise whose serious costs will arrive decades from now. Labour has proposed a National Care Service providing free personal care for older people, alongside a change to the State Pension triple lock from April 2030. The Government estimates that the pension change will reduce future state-pension spending by £15 billion a year by 2039–40 and £50 billion a year by 2049–50 in nominal terms. The care service, meanwhile, will be introduced progressively as the new settlement develops.

Read more…Continue reading on Substack
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